Blackjack Strategy

The Wizard of Odds teaches his “Wizard’s Simple Blackjack Strategy.”

Casino Odds

The basics of casino odds are probably easier than you think. The math behind a mega-jackpot on a $1 million dollar slot machine is tough, but figuring out how hard it is to throw a seven on a standard set of dice is pretty easy.

Craps

The game of craps is played with a single set of six-sided dice with dots on each side from one to six. Casinos use dice that are guaranteed to be accurate to 1/20,000 of one inch. When you roll both dice there are 36 possible outcomes. If you roll a single die the chance of it coming up a six are one in six, expressed as 1/6. If you roll both dice, the chance of both coming up a six are 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36.

If you want to know about rolling that seven, it can be rolled six ways: 1-6 or 6-1, 2-5 or 5-2, and 3-4 or 4-3 (6/36). If you make a one-roll bet on seven, you have six ways to win and 30 ways to lose. The bet pays 4 to 1. The math looks like this: 36 bets of $1 ($36) and you win six times for $24 plus your $6 in bets back ($30) – which gives us 30/36 for a return of 83 percent. The house keeps almost 17%. Yikes!

When you place a bet on 12 (both dice coming up on a six as shown above), you will hit the bet once in every 36 rolls on average. However, that crazy 12 might come up this roll and the very next roll also, or it might not come up for 200 straight rolls. Every roll is independent of the last. Just because you haven’t seen a 12 roll for half an hour doesn’t make it more likely to come up on the next roll. The odds of the next roll coming up twelve are still 1 chance in 36. Consider taking a look at the usual craps bets and their payoffs before hitting the tables!

Blackjack

 

The difference between craps and blackjack is that as cards are removed from the deck, the odds change! A standard blackjack deck uses 52 cards of four suits numbered from one (ace) through King. The odds of getting a blackjack on the first hand off the top of the deck are about 4.8 percent or 20.8 to 1.

However, if during the first hand all four aces are used, you will have zero chance of getting a blackjack on subsequent hands. At this point the house has a huge edge over you the rest of the deck with no aces available.

The math for this is pretty easy. There are two parts to the problem. If your first card is an ace (4 chances in 52 or 4/52), you need a ten-value card as your second (16 chances in 51 or 16/51). You need to multiply these together because the two events are independent of each other. 4/52 x 16/51 = 64/2652

If your first card is a ten-value card (16 chances in 52 or 16/52), you need an ace as your second card (4 chances in 51 or 4/51). You need to multiply these together because the two events, again, are independent of each other and you need them both to occur. 16/52 x 4/51 = 64/2652.

Now that you know both ways of making a blackjack, you can add the two probabilities together: 64/2652 + 64/2652 = 128/2652 This gives you a 4.8 percent chance of making a blackjack off the top of the deck. What are the odds? Take 100 percent and divide by 4.8 or 100/4.8 and you get 20.8

Roulette

If you play roulette in the United States you will most likely find that the wheels have number “1” through “36” plus a “0” and a “00.” When you bet a single number and win, the casino will pay you 35-1 for your bet. A $1 bet returns a total of $36, $35 plus your original $1 wager.

The house edge comes from the fact that there are 38 pockets for the ball to fall in. Instead of being paid 37-1, you get 35-1. On average, with a non-biased wheel, the casino will keep 2 of every 38 bets: 2/38 = 0.0526 Thus the house roulette edge on a single or straight-up bet is 5.26 percent.

Five Best Casino Bets

Ever wonder what the Five Best Casino Bets might be? Well, the more you gamble the more you need to understand casino odds. But, if you want to go directly to the best bets, read on!

What Constitutes A Good Bet?

Casinos offer players a chance to gamble, but not all games are as player friendly as you might think. When you play a hand of blackjack with good rules for the player, the house might only have an edge of a half-percent. That’s awesome. Or, you might try a craps proposition bet like Any Seven and find that the house edge is 16.7 percent. Yikes!

So, in this case, the Five Best Casino Bets are all about low house edges. Of course each bet is an independent trial, and no bets are guaranteed to win!

#1 – Full Pay” Deuces Wild – 100.76%

Believe it or not, this video poker slot actually offers the player the edge! Of course you have to find the game in the casino, and you have to find one that has this pay table:

• Natural royal flush 800
• Four deuces 200
• Wild royal flush 25
• Five of a kind 15
• Straight flush 9
• Four of a kind 5
• Full house 3
• Flush 2
• Straight 2
• Three of a kind 1
• And you have to play perfectly!

#2 – Craps Odds – 100%

Yes, you read that right! When you take the odds on a pass line bet or a no pass bet, you get paid the actual odds of your number rolling before a seven. The house has no edge at all, so take those odds.

Of course you have to first make a pass or no pass bet. So, the odds are free, but you do have to make that other wager first!

#3 – Multiple Pass and Don’t Pass Odds .13%

When you make a pass or don’t pass bet at craps, some casinos offer multiple odds, as the above section outlines. The higher the odds offered, the lower your overall pass and don’t pass bets will be as a combination with the odds. In other words, when you combine your odds bet with your line bet, the overall house edge falls:

• Simple pass bet: 1.41 percent – Don’t pass bet 1.36 percent
• Pass bet with single odds: .85 percent – Don’t pass with single odds: .7 percent
• Pass bet with double odds: .61 percent – Don’t pass with double odds: .47 percent
• Pass bet with triple odds: .47 percent – Don’t pass with triple odds: .35 percent
• Pass bet with 5x odds: .33 percent – Don’t pass with 5x odds: .23 percent
• Pass bet with 10x odds: .18 percent – Don’t pass with 10x odds: .13 percent

#4 – Baccarat 1.17%

Playing Baccarat is fairly simple and the house edge is quite small! When you bet on the player, the house edge is just 1.36, but when you bet the banker, the house edge falls all the way to 1.17 percent!

#5 – Advanced Blackjack .6%

Quantifying exactly what the house edge is at blackjack can be tough because it is the one casino game where the odds actually change based on the cards removed from previous hands. However, once a player learns the rules of blackjack they can advance to learningbasic strategy. And, with favorable rules, a player can expect to play almost even with the house – having just slightly higher than a half-percent disadvantage.

In fact, if you ever wondered if blackjack can really be beaten, it can! It takes time to learn the best strategy, but a simple plus-minus or aces and fives strategy can actually turn a small house edge into a small player edge. Wouldn’t you prefer to have the edge?